CREA Monte Maiz Wheat Production Meeting
I was able to attend two different CREA group meetings specifically on wheat production. The meetings were organized and run by the CREA advisor and attended by most of the members.
The CREA advisor compiled the wheat production numbers from the members for previous campaign and the research results from the group and the region. The advisor included additional data deemed relevant to wheat production.
In both meetings, the advisor went through the agronomic benefits of growing wheat in rotation with corn and soybeans. Here, the water table at the time of planting is a very good indicator as to final crop yield. Historically, they receive little rain during the wheat growing season. Water table levels are up this year. The advisors used data that was analyzed with statistics. I don't think they shared any data that wasn't evaluated with statistics, first. Many of the research data was from farms, but most of those plots were randomized and replicated either across a field, or across many farms.
The advisors were comfortable presenting LSD's and CV's and other measurements for variability within data. The shared regressions and stability tests as well.
CREA General Baldissera Wheat Production Meeting
In both meetings, the issue of government policy on wheat exports was a major concern. The general straw poll indicated that most producers would grow less wheat. If they grew wheat at all, it would be in regions of the country that have some better historical yields. Some producers may not grow any wheat at all in Argentina, but may try some in a neighboring country. (Yes, some of these producers have land in Uraguay. Remember, that the business model here is to spread your risk by managing land in different regions.)
These producers are on the top of their game with economics and agronomic data for producing wheat. Even with all of that information, they do not know how the government will react this coming year. That is their biggest question going into wheat this season.